via Janes.
IHS Jane's previously reported on China's reclamation project in the Spratlys and noted that until recently Fiery Cross appeared to be acting as a staging post for other island building projects. Given its status as the largest PLAN facility in the Spratlys, this seemed to be an anomaly, something that the 14 November imagery has now corrected.I think Janes is wrong in their analysis.
China has been at a distinct disadvantage compared with other claimants in the Spratly Islands as it is the only claimant not to occupy an island with an airfield. Taiwan has Itu Aba (Taiping) island, the Philippines has Pagasa island, Malaysia has Swallow Reef (a reef on which it reclaimed land and built an airstrip), and Vietnam has Southwest Cay.
The work at Fiery Cross thus brings parity but is likely to cause alarm among the other claimants. China has previously shown it is willing to spend blood and treasure to assert its territorial claims in this region. Given its massive military advantage over the other claimants in terms of quantity and quality of materiel, this facility appears purpose-built to coerce other claimants into relinquishing their claims and possessions, or at least provide China with a much stronger negotiating position if talks over the dispute were ever held.
China doesn't need to occupy an island to bolster its claim! Its the 500 pound beast in the room and what it says gets attention. They don't need an island to do that.
So what is it for?
I believe its a revival of the US WW2 tactics. This is simply a forward re-fueling and re-arming post....possibly for strike fighters (J-20) and as a staging point for amphibious assaults. Why build a sea base that can be sunk when you can simply use an island as your transfer point?
I don't see this as a threat but it should be watched. This one island (if I'm correct) could give us insight into how the Chinese want to fight us...and if it does turn out to be an important hub then mines and runway cratering bombs can knock it out in short order.
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